Looking for a good book on the fall of Bear Stearns? House of Cards is decent. Although I don't think the book was particularly well written, it does a good job of chronicalling the events that surrounded the distressed sale of the fifth largest investment bank to JP Morgan. William Cohan, who also wrote the history of Lazard, took a bit of a lazy approach in this book. Rather than recreating scenes like a good author will, he fills his stories with phrases such as, "So he says to me...and then I say to him... and then he says...." At times such writing can be frustrating to read.
The book was recommended to me by a former Bear employee, so I imagine it correctly captures the demise.
Next up for me is "Too Big to Fail" by the New York Times' Andrew Ross Sorkin. Whereas House of Cards spends most of its time describing the period of 2007 and 1Q 2008, Too Big focuses its time around the disaster that was the Fall of 2008. According to one review, they make good bookends to each other.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Back to Orlando
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The Red Sox need a reliable shortstop, and an old face is in need of a job. Since trading Nomar in 2004, shortstop has been a revolving door in Fenway park; however, the man that first took the job could have/should have held it for years. In 2005, Orlando Cabrera was fresh off a World Series win, but on a new team. The Sox were leary about paying Cabrera's price, and instead paid the same dollars to sign Edgar Renteria. We all know how that went.Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins declined to offer the mid-season acquired Cabrera, who made $4 million last season, arbitration making him an unrestricted free agent. Consequently, any team that signs him does NOT have to give the Twins compensation.
The 35-year old Cabrera is only two seasons removed from winning the gold glove at short stop. Between Oakland and the Twins, Orlando batted .284 with 77 RBIs and a .316 on-base percentage last season. Those stats aren't stellar, but the average and on-base percentage are almost exactly what Alex Gonzolez posted for the Sox last season. Current Sox target, the 34-year old Marco Scutaro, batted .282 with Toronto last season, but did have a more distinguished on-base percentage of .379.
It also should be noted that Cabrera's batting average inside Minnestota's cave, known as the Metrodome, was a terrible .231, and post the All-Star game he batted .308. In the last three years, his combined stats at Fenway were .294 avg/.368 obp/.412 slg
Let's bring back Orlando to where he belongs!Monday, November 30, 2009
Thanks Thoughts
Had a very nice midwestern Thanksgiving. Alison's parents came to town and joined us for the Holiday. Alison and her Mom cooked a great dinner.Although the day's football games weren't particularly exciting, it was great to kick back, and have something to watch [while taking a nap].
Although I had a to work on Friday, the crisis spurred by Dubai kept the day from being completely uninteresting. One quick word on Dubai: I'd say it's a lagging indicator rather than an leading one. Bad debt happens.
On Saturday, we cut down our Christmas tree. We have high living room ceilings, so we were able to grab a tall tree this year. I'd cuff our new tree at 9 feet. It may still be November, but we put the tree up right away.
Sunday I got a chance to do some mountain biking (well, out here I guess its really plains biking). We have a trail here that goes about 50 miles due West. I biked about 8 miles West before heading back due to uncoming darkness. It was a fun, true rural run.
The Luce Line is a former railroad that snakes it way through farms and lakes. Even though I didn't make it particularly far, it was a very interesting course. There were plenty of horses, cows, sheep, and even llamas. I look forward to taking the trail up past the point where I stopped; however, it's unlikely to happen until Spring.Finally, as November gets wrapped up, I lament the Patriots loss. I said going into this game that the Saints are very good. They proved it tonight. That said, the Patriots looked as much out-of-sync as the Saints looked in-sync. A few plays go the Patriots way and this is a completely different game. Brady's first pick stands out. That in its own right is probably a 10-point swing. They need to get it together on the road. Sure, they can beat up bad teams at home, but I'd like to see one good road win.
Monday, November 23, 2009
W-E-L-K-E-R
Picture worth a 1,000 words
UPDATE: How dare the Jets cry about being disrespected! Since when is respect only a one-way street? This is the same group of "professionals" who mouthed off about "kissing rings" and seeking to "embarasss" their opponent. They name three "captains" who all played for the Patriots even though one of the them is the fourth string quarterback. How do the Patriots respond? Do they trash the media about how the Jets QB isn't the second coming of Joe Neimeth? Or how Rex Ryan's scheming plans look foolish in retrospect? Do they hold out their rings and demand they be kissed?? No, they play football and throw the ball with 30 seconds left even though they were up 14 points. WOW! And the Jets including their 500 lbs coach cry disrespect! Listen boys, one can't be respected until you learn the meaning of the word.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Where was This Guy on the Campain Trail?
Senator McCain's well spoken remarks on the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Worth repeating today, Veterans Day:
In retrospect, this all seems unobjectionable. But I can assure you, my friends, it was anything but. Some objected because they thought America had no right to preach moral values when we failed to live up to them ourselves at times. Others objected because they felt the most America could do for human rights was to lead by example, but not take sides on the internal matters of other countries. Still others objected because they saw issues of morality and human rights as secondary to the real business of foreign policy – to the trade-offs, and deal-making, and interest-seeking of the world as it is, not as we would wish it to be.
We heard all of these arguments back then, and we hear them again now – for this great debate over human rights and foreign policy is as old as America itself, and it continues to this day. I know the Bush Administration spoke a lot about freedom, and democracy, and human rights. But that does not make them dirty words, and it does not make them ideas unworthy of our support today. Quite the contrary. The good thing is, America's long-running debate over whether, and how, to support human rights offers a lot of lessons to guide us at present. I'm just old enough to remember some of them, so I'd like to suggest a few of these lessons to you today.
Most important is this: The United States has a special responsibility to champion human rights – in all places, for all peoples, and at all times. Why us? The answer, I think, is simple: It's who we are. Human rights – the right to life and liberty, to the protection of property, and to rule by the consent of the governed – these values are the core of our national creed. And it is fidelity to these values – not ethnicity or religion, culture or class – that makes one an American.
And yet, human rights are not just American values; they are universal values. We embody them, but we do not own them. We think it should not be just the purpose of our government, but of all governments, to protect human rights. And when we see rulers who violate the basic rights of their citizens, it offends a sense of justice in us that we believe is shared by all people, regardless of their differences. It leads us to demand better of governments, for the simple reason that it is the right thing to do. Since America's earliest days, human rights have shaped not only who we are, but how we conduct ourselves abroad. And this should never change.
In retrospect, this all seems unobjectionable. But I can assure you, my friends, it was anything but. Some objected because they thought America had no right to preach moral values when we failed to live up to them ourselves at times. Others objected because they felt the most America could do for human rights was to lead by example, but not take sides on the internal matters of other countries. Still others objected because they saw issues of morality and human rights as secondary to the real business of foreign policy – to the trade-offs, and deal-making, and interest-seeking of the world as it is, not as we would wish it to be.
We heard all of these arguments back then, and we hear them again now – for this great debate over human rights and foreign policy is as old as America itself, and it continues to this day. I know the Bush Administration spoke a lot about freedom, and democracy, and human rights. But that does not make them dirty words, and it does not make them ideas unworthy of our support today. Quite the contrary. The good thing is, America's long-running debate over whether, and how, to support human rights offers a lot of lessons to guide us at present. I'm just old enough to remember some of them, so I'd like to suggest a few of these lessons to you today.
Most important is this: The United States has a special responsibility to champion human rights – in all places, for all peoples, and at all times. Why us? The answer, I think, is simple: It's who we are. Human rights – the right to life and liberty, to the protection of property, and to rule by the consent of the governed – these values are the core of our national creed. And it is fidelity to these values – not ethnicity or religion, culture or class – that makes one an American.
And yet, human rights are not just American values; they are universal values. We embody them, but we do not own them. We think it should not be just the purpose of our government, but of all governments, to protect human rights. And when we see rulers who violate the basic rights of their citizens, it offends a sense of justice in us that we believe is shared by all people, regardless of their differences. It leads us to demand better of governments, for the simple reason that it is the right thing to do. Since America's earliest days, human rights have shaped not only who we are, but how we conduct ourselves abroad. And this should never change.
Jobs - Real and Unreal
The White House has wagered an enormous amount of its credibility on the Stimulus package and its ability to create jobs. As I mentioned in this blog previously, the pork-ulus that was the stimulus bill was a laundry list of Democrat programs that had very little to do with job creation. As that became more obvious, the tag line for the program changed from a plan to "create jobs" into "create or save jobs." Note the "or save." That part is practically impossible to track or let alone substantiate. However, as Catwoman might say, "prrrr-fect." Having "fuzzy math" (as one might call it) makes public talking points easier than hard facts. But when hard facts emerge, the talking points become more difficult.
White House economists originally floated the following graph to show how their stimulus plan would improve the jobs situation if passed. Superimposed are red dots that show exactly where we ended up even though Congress passed the plan.
White House economists originally floated the following graph to show how their stimulus plan would improve the jobs situation if passed. Superimposed are red dots that show exactly where we ended up even though Congress passed the plan.
Needless to say - thanks for THAT.
Knowing clear well that it hasn't created jobs, White House moved on to hanging their hat on the "saved" part. They sent out forms to all Stimulus participants asking them how many jobs were gained or saved due to the money. Results: 1,000,000 jobs created or saved! Wahoooo!
But then the digging began. Even using their results, the spending doesn't look too good. At the time of the survey, $250 million of stimulus money was spent and $288 million of tax credits were given. So....that works out to $538,000 per job saved. Those better be pretty good jobs! But if that weren't enough - Local and national news services started to dig too, and found out that many of the supposed jobs "saved" don't actually exist.
The Sacramento Bee newspaper reported, "Up to one-fourth of the 110,000 jobs reported as saved by federal stimulus money in California probably never were in danger." A Florida paper reported that a Florida day care center that claimed stimulus money "saved or created" 129 jobs when in fact the money they got was simply used to give all existing employees raises. The Wall Street Journal reports that a Kentucky shoe store owner, Buddy Moore (no relation), saved nine jobs with $889.60 in federal stimulus money. How? Well, he supplied nine shoes to the Army Corps of Engineers. Somewhat confused, he determined that those nine engineers couldn't do their jobs without shoes, so 9 shoes = 9 jobs. Even The Boston Globe reports today, "While Massachusetts recipients of federal stimulus money collectively report 12,374 jobs saved or created, a Globe review shows that number is wildly exaggerated." They go on to cite a specific instance,
"One of the largest reported jobs figures comes from Bridgewater State College, which is listed as using $77,181 in stimulus money for 160 full-time work-study jobs for students. But Bridgewater State spokesman Bryan Baldwin said the college made a mistake and the actual number of new jobs was “almost nothing.’’ "
The list goes on.
The problem stems from how people were supposed to count "saved or created" jobs. Simply stated: If any employee's salary is paid, in whole or in part [any part!], count that as a job "saved or created" by the spending. So, if a factory gets $5000, and divides that, $50 a worker, among 100 workers, thats how many jobs were "saved or created."
I liken this "jobs" survey to auto dealership customer surveys. If you have purchased a car, or had a car serviced in the last few years, I'm sure you have been subjected to the dreaded customer service satisfaction survey. On it's own, it sounds like a good idea. OEMs want to rank their service providers in terms of quality. However, on their scale of 1-5, nothing is good except a perfect score, a five. Therefore, after you've purchased/serviced a car, you get the salesman speach, "you will get contacted to take a survey. Only "5" matters, so please tell the survey taker '5' on all items. Anything less than '5' is a failing grade." In many cases, they offer you a benefit for giving all fives - free oil change, etc. So the OEMs take the time to conduct these surveys, but the data are worthless based on how the survey is constructed. Nevertheless, the OEMs don't care! They get to promote "perfect customer satisfaction."
The "saved" jobs report is the same thing. Participants who received money, don't really know how many jobs they "saved," so they provide the most optimistic scenario. There is no incentive to be conservative, because those that created the survey want to see the most amount of jobs possible. They WANT to be told what they WANT to hear.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
TV imitates life
I found this pretty funny. I'm old enough to remember the first V, and it's way before Obama. Does Art imitate life, or visa versa? From the Chicago Tribune Entertainment Section:
Imagine this. At a time of political turmoil, a charismatic, telegenic new leader arrives virtually out of nowhere. He offers a message of hope and reconciliation based on compromise and promises to marshal technology for a better future that will include universal health care.
The news media swoons in admiration -- one simpering anchorman even shouts at a reporter who asks a tough question: "Why don't you show some respect?!" The public is likewise smitten, except for a few nut cases who circulate batty rumors on the Internet about the leader's origins and intentions. The leader, undismayed, offers assurances that are soothing, if also just a tiny bit condescending: "Embracing change is never easy."
So, does that sound like anyone you know? Oh, wait -- did I mention the leader is secretly a totalitarian space lizard who's come here to eat us?Welcome to ABC's "V," the most fascinating and bound to be the most controversial new show of the fall television season. Nominally a rousing sci-fi space opera about alien invaders bent on the conquest (and digestion) of all humanity, it's also a barbed commentary on Obamamania that will infuriate the president's supporters and delight his detractors.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Haunted Neighborhood
Our first Halloween in the new neighborhood was a success. The layout of our community is ideal for trick-or-treating. There's only one way in, one way out, and 48 houses in between. The trek started shortly before sunset. Katie was dressed in the same costume as last year, a gypsy/pirate (under the guise that no one here had seen it before). Emily took to the role of Dorothy from The Wizard of Oz.
We were joined by the Buchmueller, Anna and Tommy, plus their dad, Ross, got into things by dressing as Shrek.
With the exception of maybe three houses, everyone gave out candy (well, expect the house that gave cans of soda pop and coupons to his local restaraunt). There was also one house that gave us adults a tasty treat as well. Given that some areas around here are quite rural, our neighborhood was a targeted drop-off zone. If I had to guess, a couple hundred kids patrolled the streets between 6-9:30pm.
By the end, a couple pounds of candy was carried by each child. We got last years' stash to last through New Years. We'll see if the same applies this time around.
Minnesota Adventure
The Buchmuellers, friends from back in New York, came to visit us this past weekend. In an attempt to do something Minnesotan, we decided to visit Severs Corn Maze in Shakopee (http://www.severscornmaze.com/
scornmaze.com/). Along the same lines as the Outlook Hotel in the movie The Shining, Severs has a massive maze which you walk inside. However, instead of hedges, the maze is slowed into a corn field. The idea is an excellent one. The execution was o.k. at best. Although traveling though the maze was enjoyable, and the kids liked it, the puzzle itself was not particularly diificult. Each turn you took ended up somewhere. There were no dead ends or chances to get yourself lost. Nevertheless, we took pictures inside the corn stalks, and had a good time. 
scornmaze.com/). Along the same lines as the Outlook Hotel in the movie The Shining, Severs has a massive maze which you walk inside. However, instead of hedges, the maze is slowed into a corn field. The idea is an excellent one. The execution was o.k. at best. Although traveling though the maze was enjoyable, and the kids liked it, the puzzle itself was not particularly diificult. Each turn you took ended up somewhere. There were no dead ends or chances to get yourself lost. Nevertheless, we took pictures inside the corn stalks, and had a good time. 
We went for the maze, fun some other attractions at the "festival" were more interesting. Beyond the standard petting zoo, and pony rides, Severs had a 3' deep corn kernal pit. Diving right in, one got to essentially swin in corn. Although you don't sink in more than a foot or so, you can certainly dig down or dive in. Needless to say, we were finding corn in some unusual places for the next few hours.
Another fun spectacle was the pig races. No highbrow horse racing here. No Bostonian dog track. This was three not-so-little pigs running around an oval in a race for a single mini donut. It was a laugh, and the kids got to root for Hammah Montana over Arnold Snortzenneggar. A couple of cheese curds later, and we were headed home.
The whole thing had a bit of a "county fair" feel, and was surely a lcoal experience.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Friday, October 9, 2009
BREAKING NEWS - MLB Awards AL & NL MVP Awards to...
Oslo (Oct 9): For his contributions to the game of baseball, and broadening fans' horizons, Major League Baseball has taken an unprecedented step of awarding both the American League and National League MVP awards to U.S. President Barrack Obama. Although the decision to grant the awards was orginally made after his amazing first pitch at the 2009 All-Star game, MLB Presidents decided to announce the awards today in Oslo as an attempt to one-up the Nobel Committee and be more "Obamatastic," according to league sources.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Verizon Troubles
I have had a week of Verizon customer service issues. It's been a nightmare. Frustrated, I shot off the following email to Ivan Seidenberg, the CEO of Verizon.
Mr. Seidenberg,
I am a portfolio manager and have met you time and again. However, I write you today as a customer. It is incredible to me, as both a customer and investor, at the level of conglomerate bureaucracy that Verizon customer service is. Up until very recently, I was a Verizon FIOS customer. I lauded the service to all who would listen. However, recently I was transferred from New York to Minnesota. As you are well aware, Minnesota is not a FIOS area.
I rented my house to a tenant who wished to keep Verizon. I spoke to four different customer service representatives who each told me something completely different about whether the tenant could assume my Verizon equipment. At the end of the day, it was determined (for reasons that do not make sense to me) that they could not assume my equipment. Since I did not want to lose my @verizon.net email addresses, I chose not to cancel my Internet service right away. I was willing to keep paying for FIOS without using it. However, the new tenant was unable to establish their own equipment unless I terminated my account. Consequently, a representative in Fiber Solutions in Syracuse instructed me to cancel my service, call back customer service to have my email “enabled.” Such action, I was told, would allow me to keep my email accounts for another 20-30 days. I followed his instructions, terminated by account, only to be told by someone else in Fiber Solutions that they had no idea what the former representative was talking about.
An escalation specialist, Enid – also in Syracuse, was helpful but in the end unable to do much. She (somehow) re-established my emails for 24 hours ending today. She called DSL/Dial-up Sales on my behalf to determine that I could get a dial-up account and keep my emails. However, when we called together another dial-up sales person, we were both told that in fact, no she was wrong. I couldn’t establish a dial-up account in Minnesota.
Today, I got a voicemail from yet another Fiber Solutions representative who instructed me to call Dial-Up and gave me a number to call. The number didn’t work. I tried to activate a Dial-Up account on-line on a specific dial-up account setup website, and received a message half-way through the process that the website wasn’t working correctly. It instructed me to call yet another (800) number. That (800) number did not service dial-up accounts. That person transferred me to a dial-up representative. After waiting on hold for 15-minutes, I was not in-fact transferred to dial-up sales and had to be transferred yet again.
Finally, the dial-up representative for New York, told me that I could not establish a dial-up account because I did not have a Verizon phone number in New York. Why I need a Verizon phone number so that I can dial into the Verizon network is beyond me! If I were traveling across the country, and needed to dial in, it would not matter what type of phone I used to do so. I attempted to use a relative’s NY phone number to establish the account, but was told I would have to call FIOS to establish an account because the number was associated with FIOS sales. That relative with a traditional landline Verizon phone, does not have FIOS! Determined, I tried calling the Minnesota Verizon number – waited on hold for 25 minutes, but no one answered. What’s even crazier is that I don’t intend to actually use the service! All I want is to keep my email addresses.
So, after speaking with eight different representatives (including two supervisors), waiting on hold for a grand total of 45 minutes or more, I have multiple, mutually-exclusive solutions to my problem that no one can seem to do in their own department, yet when I call those departments, they have no idea what I’m talking about. The answers I receive make no logical sense to someone who clearly understands how the telephone/internet infrastructure works.
In the end, I am trying to throw money at Verizon, and no one seems to want it. It is truly unbelievable.
A disgruntled former customer and puzzled investor,
Bill Moore
Can you believe, he personally responded within an hour, and the SVP of Customer Service was on the phone to me within a half an hour of that. I'm impressed with that.
Mr. Seidenberg,
I am a portfolio manager and have met you time and again. However, I write you today as a customer. It is incredible to me, as both a customer and investor, at the level of conglomerate bureaucracy that Verizon customer service is. Up until very recently, I was a Verizon FIOS customer. I lauded the service to all who would listen. However, recently I was transferred from New York to Minnesota. As you are well aware, Minnesota is not a FIOS area.
I rented my house to a tenant who wished to keep Verizon. I spoke to four different customer service representatives who each told me something completely different about whether the tenant could assume my Verizon equipment. At the end of the day, it was determined (for reasons that do not make sense to me) that they could not assume my equipment. Since I did not want to lose my @verizon.net email addresses, I chose not to cancel my Internet service right away. I was willing to keep paying for FIOS without using it. However, the new tenant was unable to establish their own equipment unless I terminated my account. Consequently, a representative in Fiber Solutions in Syracuse instructed me to cancel my service, call back customer service to have my email “enabled.” Such action, I was told, would allow me to keep my email accounts for another 20-30 days. I followed his instructions, terminated by account, only to be told by someone else in Fiber Solutions that they had no idea what the former representative was talking about.
An escalation specialist, Enid – also in Syracuse, was helpful but in the end unable to do much. She (somehow) re-established my emails for 24 hours ending today. She called DSL/Dial-up Sales on my behalf to determine that I could get a dial-up account and keep my emails. However, when we called together another dial-up sales person, we were both told that in fact, no she was wrong. I couldn’t establish a dial-up account in Minnesota.
Today, I got a voicemail from yet another Fiber Solutions representative who instructed me to call Dial-Up and gave me a number to call. The number didn’t work. I tried to activate a Dial-Up account on-line on a specific dial-up account setup website, and received a message half-way through the process that the website wasn’t working correctly. It instructed me to call yet another (800) number. That (800) number did not service dial-up accounts. That person transferred me to a dial-up representative. After waiting on hold for 15-minutes, I was not in-fact transferred to dial-up sales and had to be transferred yet again.
Finally, the dial-up representative for New York, told me that I could not establish a dial-up account because I did not have a Verizon phone number in New York. Why I need a Verizon phone number so that I can dial into the Verizon network is beyond me! If I were traveling across the country, and needed to dial in, it would not matter what type of phone I used to do so. I attempted to use a relative’s NY phone number to establish the account, but was told I would have to call FIOS to establish an account because the number was associated with FIOS sales. That relative with a traditional landline Verizon phone, does not have FIOS! Determined, I tried calling the Minnesota Verizon number – waited on hold for 25 minutes, but no one answered. What’s even crazier is that I don’t intend to actually use the service! All I want is to keep my email addresses.
So, after speaking with eight different representatives (including two supervisors), waiting on hold for a grand total of 45 minutes or more, I have multiple, mutually-exclusive solutions to my problem that no one can seem to do in their own department, yet when I call those departments, they have no idea what I’m talking about. The answers I receive make no logical sense to someone who clearly understands how the telephone/internet infrastructure works.
In the end, I am trying to throw money at Verizon, and no one seems to want it. It is truly unbelievable.
A disgruntled former customer and puzzled investor,
Bill Moore
Can you believe, he personally responded within an hour, and the SVP of Customer Service was on the phone to me within a half an hour of that. I'm impressed with that.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Bank of America's Take on Cash for Clunkers
I love it when $3 billion in tax payer money goes to buy new cars for people. Here is Bank of America’s economists take:
Bad policy meet economic theory
Economic growth is usually defined as the expansion of a nation’s capability to produce the goods and services its people want. Therefore, growth depends on changes in the economy’s potential for production and the extent that capacity is utilized. This leads to the first problem with the Cash for Clunkers program. As the new vehicle is purchased, the trade-in vehicle is destroyed. In other words, under the CARS program, there is no addition to the capital stock. The investment undertaken is simply replacement demand. Secondly, while manufacturers will have to increase production to replace the sold vehicles, the boost to production will have only a temporary impact on the economy. The third problem with the Program is that the removal of the clunkers reduces the supply of vehicles for the used-car market. This will raise prices for those who can not afford a new vehicle. The fourth problem with the Program is that for the consumers who purchased new vehicles, their balance sheets are degraded. In many instances, the trade-in vehicle was fully owned by the consumer. To acquire the new vehicle, the consumer either borrowed the money, putting himself further in debt, or paid cash, losing out on interest earned. In either case, the consumer is poorer. For those that still owed money on their “clunker”, they likely swapped a small debt for a larger debt. As we highlighted earlier, the Cash for Clunkers program may be good for the environment, but it is not good for the economy or the consumer.
Cash for Clunkers and the Economic Outlook
On August 6th, President Obama signed into law a $2 billion extension of the “cash for clunkers” program. Whereas the original program was set to expire on November 1, with the extension, the program expires around Labor Day. As with any temporary program, the impacts will be short-lived. We now expect real consumer spending on durable goods to increase an annualized 12.0% in the third quarter and decline an annualized 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Previously, we were projecting annualized gains of 9.6% for 3Q and 3.5% for 4Q. (Recall that the original program expired in 4Q.) As for real GDP, we now anticipate 3Q annualized growth of 3.0%, up from the previous forecast of 2.6%. Fourth quarter growth is now projected to be 2.3%, down from the previous estimate of 2.8%. Not a lot of stimulus for $3 billion.
Bad policy meet economic theory
Economic growth is usually defined as the expansion of a nation’s capability to produce the goods and services its people want. Therefore, growth depends on changes in the economy’s potential for production and the extent that capacity is utilized. This leads to the first problem with the Cash for Clunkers program. As the new vehicle is purchased, the trade-in vehicle is destroyed. In other words, under the CARS program, there is no addition to the capital stock. The investment undertaken is simply replacement demand. Secondly, while manufacturers will have to increase production to replace the sold vehicles, the boost to production will have only a temporary impact on the economy. The third problem with the Program is that the removal of the clunkers reduces the supply of vehicles for the used-car market. This will raise prices for those who can not afford a new vehicle. The fourth problem with the Program is that for the consumers who purchased new vehicles, their balance sheets are degraded. In many instances, the trade-in vehicle was fully owned by the consumer. To acquire the new vehicle, the consumer either borrowed the money, putting himself further in debt, or paid cash, losing out on interest earned. In either case, the consumer is poorer. For those that still owed money on their “clunker”, they likely swapped a small debt for a larger debt. As we highlighted earlier, the Cash for Clunkers program may be good for the environment, but it is not good for the economy or the consumer.
Cash for Clunkers and the Economic Outlook
On August 6th, President Obama signed into law a $2 billion extension of the “cash for clunkers” program. Whereas the original program was set to expire on November 1, with the extension, the program expires around Labor Day. As with any temporary program, the impacts will be short-lived. We now expect real consumer spending on durable goods to increase an annualized 12.0% in the third quarter and decline an annualized 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Previously, we were projecting annualized gains of 9.6% for 3Q and 3.5% for 4Q. (Recall that the original program expired in 4Q.) As for real GDP, we now anticipate 3Q annualized growth of 3.0%, up from the previous forecast of 2.6%. Fourth quarter growth is now projected to be 2.3%, down from the previous estimate of 2.8%. Not a lot of stimulus for $3 billion.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
The Book is Out
The 2009 Football Outsiders book is out. Due to some publishing changes and contractual issues, it's not called Pro Football Prospectus this year. Although we had publishers interested in producing the book, the late decision by Plume to not publish the book left us with too tight of a timeline to get a new publisher. So instead, we self published. It allows readers to buy a $13 PDF version, or a $24 printed version. It's still listed on Amazon.
We got a great plug from Sports Illustrated's Peter King. Note item number five from “Ten Things I Think” in the Monday Morning Quarterback article on SI.com. A lot of stuff that he is quoting is my stuff.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/08/03/NFL.takes/4.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/08/03/NFL.takes/4.html
Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac hit Amazon last week, and is the #3 best selling sports book (knocking off Thurman Munson thank you very much).
http://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2009-Essential/dp/1448648459/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1249420792&sr=8-1
Amazon.com Sales Rank: #77 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)
#1 in Books > Sports > Football (American)
Not that I’m soliciting you, but IF you were going to buy it, we do make more money if you buy it here (https://www.createspace.com/3392071 ) or a PDF version here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store ) since we avoid the Amazon sales fee. As an aside, I personally make very little per book so only buy it if you actually want to read it.
http://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2009-Essential/dp/1448648459/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1249420792&sr=8-1
Amazon.com Sales Rank: #77 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)
#1 in Books > Sports > Football (American)
Not that I’m soliciting you, but IF you were going to buy it, we do make more money if you buy it here (https://www.createspace.com/3392071 ) or a PDF version here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store ) since we avoid the Amazon sales fee. As an aside, I personally make very little per book so only buy it if you actually want to read it.
I didn't contribute any articles this year. I have been too busy with the new job. I did prepare a lot of the numbers, and some of the text in the Tendency Sections. I think it’s just cool to be a listed Author.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
No More Tears No Mah
Nomar returned to Fenway after a five year absense. I was able to catch his first at-bat on mlb.com, and it was quite a moment. The room clearly got a little dusty, and I imagine even J.D. Drew felt an emotional twinge. The once face-of-the-franchise fully deserved the standing ovation he received, and it clearly meant a lot to him. For the most part, I'll remember Nomar fondly. I recall one specific instance in the late 90s. The Red Sox closed out their last home stand of the year - they may have lost, I don't recall - and they were not headed to the playoffs again. [Remember those years? They weren't that long ago.] The game had ended, and Nomar came out of the dugout after the game, and applauded the fans. He walk around the infield clapping his hands and pointing to the patrons. I do not remember a single other player doing the same. I thought at the time, 'that is a classy move. The team didn't do much, but here's a guy who understands that the fans are the reason he plays baseball for a living.'Unfortunately, there's another indelible memory I have of Nomar - that of him sulking on the bench during a key Sox/Yankees game in 2004 refusing to play. He wants to rewrite history when it comes to how he left Boston. "I never left. I got traded... I never wanted to leave..." blah, blah, blah. Lest us not forget, Nomar ran himself out of Boston in 2004. Imaginary injuries, agent threats and uninspired performances ended his career. A number of his own teammates made comments about the negativity in the locker room that Nomar generated in that final season.
And now he's back. He made great comments about loving the fans and sad that he left; however, I would have liked to see him more contrite and bear some responsibility. Sure he's unhappy that he left. We won two World Series immediately including one before the door hit him in the rear end, and he's done nothing since. Here's what I would have liked to hear him say, "this is a business, and sometimes business gets messy. I let the business side effect the baseball side, and that was a mistake. With 20/20 hindsight, I'd have handled it differently, and I'm sure the Red Sox management would have too."
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Really
We have the volume off, but CNBC is interviewing a guest who runs an "environmentally-friendly" fund. They flashed a stat on the bottom of the screen:
"Highest Carbon count in the atmosphere in 800,000 years"
My first reaction is: How could one possibly quantify that?
Second, there was apparently a high carbon count 800,001 years ago, and yet the earth somehow sustained life...
"Highest Carbon count in the atmosphere in 800,000 years"
My first reaction is: How could one possibly quantify that?
Second, there was apparently a high carbon count 800,001 years ago, and yet the earth somehow sustained life...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Better Late than Nevah
When the family went to the Metrodome to see the Red Sox play the Twins on this past Memorial Day, we arrived plenty early to watch batting practice.We carefully watched Big Papi swing the bat. The guy was in the slump of slumps. I don't think he was hitting sub-.200 yet, but he was on his way.
Although Papi didn't play that particular game, he rocked some shots in batting practice. A number of balls landed in the upper deck of right centerfield. Let me say that the Metrodome is nothing if not cavernous. The place was built for football, and they don't even sell tickets for the that area because its too far away. Those were bombs. I understand it was just batting practice, but clearly he still had power.In the next game, he played, and sent two balls 405 feet. Unfortunately, they were both to the same spot - the 408 foot part of centerfield. Either ball was 10 degrees one way or another, they were his first home run of the year.
I knew from that point that there was at least hope for Papi this season. Others probably knew it too. Throughout the stuggles fans both home and away were very un-Bostonian - they cheered him every at-bat. Very classy.
It probably hasn't gone unnoticed, but Papi is looking better. Yes, he is still batting .210, or something like that, but in the last 14 games (beginning shortly after the series in Minnesota), he is batting .326 with 9 runs, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs, and a .431 on-base percentage. I'll take that!
P.S., here is a picture from our seats during warm-ups at the first game. No, the camera did not use a zoom, those guys were right in front of us. I could have spit on Justin Morneau - not that I would.
Pssst ... Wanna buy a house?
After a couple months of preparations, we finally got the house on the market yesterday. If you click the above link on the post's title, it will take you to the Sotheby's website. I don't plan on linking directly to the house on a public website, but if you know what my house looks like, you can find it.
We priced it on the high end of what brokers quoted us, so it will be interesting to see what shakes out. My aren't pressured to sell. If you don't get a good price, we are looking at renting the place. If we don't get a good rental, we put the whole process on hold. Alison and the kids would very likely stay there until next Spring when we try again. First, we don't necessarily want to take the kids out of school midyear, and second, would you want to move to Minnesota in January?
Simultaneous to the house sale, we are also greiving our real estate taxes. Although we have listed the house on the high end, it's nothing compared to our town assessment! That number is absurd. So on one hand we are trying to put our best foot forward to pitch the sale, and on the other we are making a pitch book to why our house is worth as little as we can justify. Fun! Grievances were due on Tuesday. We shall see...
We priced it on the high end of what brokers quoted us, so it will be interesting to see what shakes out. My aren't pressured to sell. If you don't get a good price, we are looking at renting the place. If we don't get a good rental, we put the whole process on hold. Alison and the kids would very likely stay there until next Spring when we try again. First, we don't necessarily want to take the kids out of school midyear, and second, would you want to move to Minnesota in January?
Simultaneous to the house sale, we are also greiving our real estate taxes. Although we have listed the house on the high end, it's nothing compared to our town assessment! That number is absurd. So on one hand we are trying to put our best foot forward to pitch the sale, and on the other we are making a pitch book to why our house is worth as little as we can justify. Fun! Grievances were due on Tuesday. We shall see...
Monday, June 15, 2009
One Flight on Time
Thunderstorms in New York on Friday caused fairly severe air traffic delays. One flight left and arrived on time - and it was MINE! That's the good news, I guess. The bad news was that I missed it.
Starting as early as Noon, nwa.com listed my flight as late. 3:35pm was the scheduled departure time (vs. the 3:00pm original time). I checked the status every 20-30 minutes with the same results. Since I am only 20-25 minutes from the airport, and I check no bags, my goal is to get there 30 minutes before the flight.
At 2:35, I am getting ready to leave the office, and check the status of the flight once more. Scheduled Departure: 3:00 - ON TIME. What?!? Yikes! I made the airport in record time, and got to security 2:58/2:59pm, but ... I can't print a boarding pass and the flight leaves the gate at 3:07 without me. Apparently, Air Traffic Control deemed it ok to send the flight, and when Air Traffic Control says "go," you go. You need to be at the gate.
So I ask this question: what is the point of displaying the flight being late if 1) I have to be there on time anyway, and/or 2) the flight can change the fact that it is or isn't delayed at the drop of a hat?
I was rebooked on the 5:15 which is eventually 2 1/2 hours late.
Starting as early as Noon, nwa.com listed my flight as late. 3:35pm was the scheduled departure time (vs. the 3:00pm original time). I checked the status every 20-30 minutes with the same results. Since I am only 20-25 minutes from the airport, and I check no bags, my goal is to get there 30 minutes before the flight.
At 2:35, I am getting ready to leave the office, and check the status of the flight once more. Scheduled Departure: 3:00 - ON TIME. What?!? Yikes! I made the airport in record time, and got to security 2:58/2:59pm, but ... I can't print a boarding pass and the flight leaves the gate at 3:07 without me. Apparently, Air Traffic Control deemed it ok to send the flight, and when Air Traffic Control says "go," you go. You need to be at the gate.
So I ask this question: what is the point of displaying the flight being late if 1) I have to be there on time anyway, and/or 2) the flight can change the fact that it is or isn't delayed at the drop of a hat?
I was rebooked on the 5:15 which is eventually 2 1/2 hours late.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Flyin the Friendly Skies
So all this traveling has finally yielded a small benefit. After about two and a half months of flying, I made it to Elite status on Northwest/Delta. I actually got in to the program earlier than expected. When I first moved out here, I made all the necessary arrangements to rack up airline miles as fast as possible. One of the first steps was getting a Northwest credit card. Every dollar spent = miles earned. There was a bonus feature. During the year, if you spent enough on the card, you got 25,000 miles toward the Elite program. However, Northwest and Delta are in the middle of merging, and Delta has a seperate American Express card relationship. Delta recently announced that they are canceling the Northwest relationship with US Bank Visa. And poof! there went my chance at 25,000 Elite miles. However, I wasn't one to give up. I called customer service, and they gave me 10,000 Elite miles due to my "inconvenience." With that, Bang!, my 19,000 miles jumped to 29,000 and welcome to Elite early.
Although it doesn't sound like much, now I can pick preferred seats and make nearer term reservations. I can fly Stand-by and change flights without paying for it, board the plane ahead of everyone else and get upgraded when First Class seats are open. I got upgraded last Friday, but unfortunately, the full plane had no space for me in the Upper Class on the way back this morning.
It's the little things....
Although it doesn't sound like much, now I can pick preferred seats and make nearer term reservations. I can fly Stand-by and change flights without paying for it, board the plane ahead of everyone else and get upgraded when First Class seats are open. I got upgraded last Friday, but unfortunately, the full plane had no space for me in the Upper Class on the way back this morning.
It's the little things....
Monday, June 1, 2009
New Post
Yes, very exciting post title. I've been meaning to post, but frankly have been surprised how little "down" time I've had. Part time life in Minnesota is going well. The job has been great so far. Although I haven't been to a lot of places, it's really pretty here. Last Thursday, we had a work event at a local restaurant with a deck overlooking Lake Minnetonka. It stays light up here to well past Nine o'clock. It was 81 degrees and just a perfect setting.
The family was out here for Memorial Day weekend. Although the apartment is tight for four of us, the weather was great, and we took advantage of it. The Red Sox were in town, so on Memorial Day proper, we attended the Sox/Twins. We had excellent seats - front row to the third base side, right next to the Twins bullpen. For those NESN viewers, you may have seen us. They took a nice close up of us ("there's a Red Sox family.") The kids were really hoping for a foul ball, but no luck.
I attended the next two games - tickets are real easy to get out here.
As for the New York front, we continue to try and figure out what to do with our place. Decision is immenent, but that's for another post.
I'm rambling, but I felt it was worth posting something.
The family was out here for Memorial Day weekend. Although the apartment is tight for four of us, the weather was great, and we took advantage of it. The Red Sox were in town, so on Memorial Day proper, we attended the Sox/Twins. We had excellent seats - front row to the third base side, right next to the Twins bullpen. For those NESN viewers, you may have seen us. They took a nice close up of us ("there's a Red Sox family.") The kids were really hoping for a foul ball, but no luck.
I attended the next two games - tickets are real easy to get out here.
As for the New York front, we continue to try and figure out what to do with our place. Decision is immenent, but that's for another post.
I'm rambling, but I felt it was worth posting something.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Weeks of Emily Birthdays
Emily's birthday is April 10 - during school vacation. So, she had a birthday celebration at school on the 2nd. Then they all flew here to Minneapolis, and on the 10th, we celebrated her birthday. At her suggestion, we spent the day at Nickelodeon Universe, the amusement park inside the Mall of America. We had dinner at her favorite restaurant - the Outback. No, she doesn't love Outback for the steaks, but rather ... the Mac & Cheese. It could be worse. Of all the Outbacks I have been to, most of your meal is filled with wait staff singing "Happy Birthday from the Outback." However, this Outback - no singing. In fact, we didn't even get a candle placed in the "birthday" Sundae. Therefore, we brought a cake to the dinner party we attended the next day - and everyone sang!
Then she went home, and celebated with local New York family. More cake! I attended by Skype. Very exciting, they watched me cook (and by cook, I mean heat up).
But wait, we aren't done. Next Saturday is her Birthday Party. We are attending the Hannah Montana movie with 10 +/- friends.
Here are some pictures from Minneapolis week:
Then she went home, and celebated with local New York family. More cake! I attended by Skype. Very exciting, they watched me cook (and by cook, I mean heat up).
But wait, we aren't done. Next Saturday is her Birthday Party. We are attending the Hannah Montana movie with 10 +/- friends.
Here are some pictures from Minneapolis week:
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Twins' City
We took in a Twins game at the Metrodome tonight. We bought tickets in centerfield for $10 a pop - quite a difference from the Bronx. The Dome isn't a great place to see a game (the Twins are moving to a new outdoor stadium next year), and we were pretty far from home plate. Neverthless, we had a fun night on the cheap. The Kids enjoyed the environment, and we didn't press it. We were gone after the fifth inning with the Twins down 4-3. Too bad, the Twins apparently came back in the bottom of the ninth to win the game.
Fight! Fight! Fight the Blue and White are rolling to Victory!
Congratulations to the 2009 UNC Tarheels! They entered this season as the most talented group of individuals - by a long shot. However, they also lost a few EASY games. It was great to see them come together and play an extremely good team game. I've now seen four North Carolina Championships, and this team is easily one of my favorites. Hansborough is a gritty, and hard working player. Lawson - the key to this team - is an incredible point guard who easily could have gone Pro last year. Danny Green, from Long Island, has a father who had trouble with the law, and hadn't seen him play in person in a Tarheel uniform due to the terms of his parole. I believe that this postseason was the first time he was allowed to attend his son's games. And finally, Roy Williams. This guy is a class act (as is Michigan State coach Tom Izzo). Match up Coach Williams to Coach K, and there's no comparison.In 1993 and 2005, I visited Chapel Hill for a game during the season. Apparently, the CAN do it without me.
^
There'll be a Carolina Victory
When cross the field the foe has fled
Cheer the team to Victory
For we are Tar Heels Born and Bred (Rah! Rah! Rah!)
Glory Glory U.N.C.
Our hearts will live with thee
Fight! Fight! Fight the Blue and White are
Rolling to Victory!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Random Update
I write this as I sit disappointed with the performances of American Idol this week. I'm not sure I found a single song worthy of being liked... Speaking of TV, "Eight Eastern, Seven Central." How I've heard that phrase all my life, but yikes! words to live by now. Seven Central?!? Who can start watching network TV at 7:00?? Anyone who knows me, knows I love my TV, but seven o'clock is ridiculous. All I can say is: thank the Lord, I shipped a DVR out here....I experienced my first commuting weekend. I left the office a half an hour before the stock market close. I got to the airport with some time to spare for a 3:30 flight. I missed all the "insider" tips from c0-workers about parking and security because I don't know the airport complex yet. The plane was in the air 10 minutes after leaving the gate, and despite problems on the Whitestone Bridge I was still home by eight. The reverse was just as easy. I got the new Clear card that zips you through Security in New York, and was at my desk before 9:00... The highlight of the weekend was the Girl Scouts "Special Person" semi-formal. Held at the Larchmont Shore Club (the same location as Alison and my wedding reception), a hundred [guess] girl scouts dressed up and brought their dads [mostly] to a sweet dinner/dance. Although Katie spent most of her dancing minutes with friends, we had a couple nice dancing moments. Plus I still got to see the end of Villanova/Pitt in the bar area :) .... Speaking of college basketball, my pool is a disaster. In hedge fund terminology, I went long the ACC, short the Big East. The returns were similar to those evil hedge funds' returns in 2008... Work is good. Still finding my role/niche, but it's all good. Nice people - you betcha!
Monday, March 23, 2009
TARP me TALF me, anyway you want me
The stock market was up almost 500 points today on a new plan to save the financial system. Let's see, according to US Treasury, they will use funds from the Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to purchase troubled assets from the U.S. banks to give them relief on their declining capital ratios and subsequent margin calls. It doesn't have a catchy name yet. Currently, they have labeled it Legacy Securities Program.
Too bad. It should have a catchy name. So, let's think! Commingled Repurchased Asset Program? CRAP? Nah... Hmmm... So, they now have a program that is buying troubled assets, and it provides some relief. PTAR... No... Let's see, we're putting $500-$1,000bn of taxpayer money into purchasing troubled assets in order to take them off the books of the banks in hopes of making a profit out of the whole mess. How about, Troubled Asset Relief Program. Perfect! TARP!
Whoops, sorry, we have a TARP program. That acronym was already used for a program that was inacted in October 2008 specifically designed to buy troubled assets from the U.S. banks to give them relief on their declining capital ratios and subsequent margin calls, but instead was bastardized to be used to throw money around in hopes of stabilizing the economy, and stiff-arming financial institutions to lend to already overstreteched consumers so they could bid-up already inflated assets they couldn't afford while simultaneously criticizing these same financial institutions for not being financially smart and healthy. [long exhale]
This program is what TARP was supposed to be! This was the original plan! WTF took five months to figure it out! Look back at my postings in October 2008, and you will see the same ideas: get the bad assets off the books of the banks. Put them in hands of investors with long time horizons (like the U.S. Treasury) and no capital ratios to maintain. Banks will be free to make GOOD loans again, and at the end of the day, the investor in troubled assets probably makes some money.
To solve the problem of pricing and managing the assets, they seek help from private sector - yes, those same hedge fund evil-doers who have become the butt of Congressional babbling for the last six months. Although there are profits to be made, especially when the FDIC is providing 6:1 financing, I say "good luck" to the bastards who participate. I'll blog good things on your behalf when you too are called in front of Congress to explain how you made "millions" off the taxpayers generousity and dragged through the mud on CSPAN. And that's if you make a profit. God forbid you lose "our" money...
Too bad. It should have a catchy name. So, let's think! Commingled Repurchased Asset Program? CRAP? Nah... Hmmm... So, they now have a program that is buying troubled assets, and it provides some relief. PTAR... No... Let's see, we're putting $500-$1,000bn of taxpayer money into purchasing troubled assets in order to take them off the books of the banks in hopes of making a profit out of the whole mess. How about, Troubled Asset Relief Program. Perfect! TARP!
Whoops, sorry, we have a TARP program. That acronym was already used for a program that was inacted in October 2008 specifically designed to buy troubled assets from the U.S. banks to give them relief on their declining capital ratios and subsequent margin calls, but instead was bastardized to be used to throw money around in hopes of stabilizing the economy, and stiff-arming financial institutions to lend to already overstreteched consumers so they could bid-up already inflated assets they couldn't afford while simultaneously criticizing these same financial institutions for not being financially smart and healthy. [long exhale]
This program is what TARP was supposed to be! This was the original plan! WTF took five months to figure it out! Look back at my postings in October 2008, and you will see the same ideas: get the bad assets off the books of the banks. Put them in hands of investors with long time horizons (like the U.S. Treasury) and no capital ratios to maintain. Banks will be free to make GOOD loans again, and at the end of the day, the investor in troubled assets probably makes some money.
To solve the problem of pricing and managing the assets, they seek help from private sector - yes, those same hedge fund evil-doers who have become the butt of Congressional babbling for the last six months. Although there are profits to be made, especially when the FDIC is providing 6:1 financing, I say "good luck" to the bastards who participate. I'll blog good things on your behalf when you too are called in front of Congress to explain how you made "millions" off the taxpayers generousity and dragged through the mud on CSPAN. And that's if you make a profit. God forbid you lose "our" money...
Paging Senator Smoot!
May the mass lynchings begin. Nobody is happy about the AIG bailout, but the hysteria surrounding it is insane. People are bitter, I get that; however, the reason we have representative government is to remove ourselves from the rule of the mob. Looking back at history, consensus outrage is often wrong - or at the very least not very forward looking. Roughly four score years ago, mass outrage at international trade led to the Smoot Hawley Tarriff Act to protect American farmers and the American people. The bill passed the Senate 44-42 and 245 to 177 in the House - mostly along party lines (Republicans pushing it through) and signed by Republican President Hoover. Lots of people supported then - it seemed like a good idea. Throw tarriffs on over 900 products to protect the average American. Wall Street hated it. The Head of JP Morgan, Thomas Lamont, begged President Hoover not to sign it. It wasn't long before the bill sent the U.S. further into the Depression. The name Smoot-Hawley (other than being a great Ferris Bueller movie quote) is solely tossed around now like no one would ever make a dumb mistake like that again. But circumstances of the time didn't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Lots of people thought it was a good idea in June 1930.
The taxation of bonuses at 90%, or the breaking of contracts to claw back a meager $165 million (yes, I say "meager" when it's put into context of a $130 billion AIG bailout), is just plain D-U-M-B! It could turn to be the Smoot-Hawley of the 21st century. If it HAS to pass, I can only hope its called the Dodd-Frank Act. At least history will then remember these two for the buffoons they really are.
The taxation of bonuses at 90%, or the breaking of contracts to claw back a meager $165 million (yes, I say "meager" when it's put into context of a $130 billion AIG bailout), is just plain D-U-M-B! It could turn to be the Smoot-Hawley of the 21st century. If it HAS to pass, I can only hope its called the Dodd-Frank Act. At least history will then remember these two for the buffoons they really are.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Minneapolis Fever
The move has officially occurred. I write this entry from a 2BR apartment in downtown Minneapolis. It's 10:00 at night, and 51 degrees. Yes, it is warmer than in New York City. Alison and I came out here last Thursday. We spent the four day weekend previewing different parts of the city and the suburbs. Although we met with some Real Estate agents, it was more of a fact finding tour than anything else.
The apartment is nice - spacious for one, but will be crowded when the whole family comes to visit. There's a nice view, and plenty of windows from which to view the view. There's a gym - and yes, I have used it. Check in later to see how regular it becomes. Known as Centre Village, the co
mplex is connected to the rest of Minneapolis through the skyway system - a strange, hamster-like habitat system that connects numerous buildings with hallways one level above the ground (see the image to the left). Basically, it lets one walk through town without going outside (due to the extremely cold winters). However, it has the feel of walking around some big Las Vegas convention center without the screaming slot machines. Very odd.
The girls are handling things well. We have established a good Skype routine for video conferences. Between one camera in the kitchen and one in the family room, we have things covered. Plus the uniqueness of talking to Dad on the computer hasn't worn off yet. If you too have Skype - let me know. I'll Skype you too. Boy, that sounds dirty doesn't it?!?
I've only completed one day of work, but so far - so good. The first day involved setting up systems and learning names. One is done, and one needs work. I won't say which.
All for now...
The apartment is nice - spacious for one, but will be crowded when the whole family comes to visit. There's a nice view, and plenty of windows from which to view the view. There's a gym - and yes, I have used it. Check in later to see how regular it becomes. Known as Centre Village, the co
mplex is connected to the rest of Minneapolis through the skyway system - a strange, hamster-like habitat system that connects numerous buildings with hallways one level above the ground (see the image to the left). Basically, it lets one walk through town without going outside (due to the extremely cold winters). However, it has the feel of walking around some big Las Vegas convention center without the screaming slot machines. Very odd.The girls are handling things well. We have established a good Skype routine for video conferences. Between one camera in the kitchen and one in the family room, we have things covered. Plus the uniqueness of talking to Dad on the computer hasn't worn off yet. If you too have Skype - let me know. I'll Skype you too. Boy, that sounds dirty doesn't it?!?
I've only completed one day of work, but so far - so good. The first day involved setting up systems and learning names. One is done, and one needs work. I won't say which.
All for now...
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
You're Gonna Make It After All
I have accepted a new job. It has a catch that wasn’t expected at the outset of this search – it’s in Minneapolis. I’ll be doing very similar things to my old jobs, but at a new firm. Waterstone Capital Management, which is located just West of the city in Plymouth, MN, was one of the best performing convertible bond funds in 2008. They were up more than 12%, when many funds were down 20-50%. Founded about five years ago, Waterstone has roughly 18 employees and manages about $750 million of investor’s capital.
At first, I will be commuting Mon-Fri, and returning home for the weekends. Come August, we’ll see what’s next. Much depends on the NY State housing market. We could rent our place, sell it, or potentially continue the commuting thing for another school year.
I'm very excited about the opportunity. Waterstone is a very good match with my skill set, and I like the people very much. The commute/move is a bit nerve racking. We'll see how it goes.
Overall, the family is on-board. Alison will certainly have the most difficulty since her family remains here in New York. Katie, who was not too pleased at first, is veiwing it more positively. The unshakable Emily would probably be ok if we moved tomorrow.
I'm starting March 16. The company has set me up in an apartment in downtown Minneapolis. I'm already looking at the Twins schedule to see when the Red Sox come to town.
At first, I will be commuting Mon-Fri, and returning home for the weekends. Come August, we’ll see what’s next. Much depends on the NY State housing market. We could rent our place, sell it, or potentially continue the commuting thing for another school year.
I'm very excited about the opportunity. Waterstone is a very good match with my skill set, and I like the people very much. The commute/move is a bit nerve racking. We'll see how it goes.
Overall, the family is on-board. Alison will certainly have the most difficulty since her family remains here in New York. Katie, who was not too pleased at first, is veiwing it more positively. The unshakable Emily would probably be ok if we moved tomorrow.
I'm starting March 16. The company has set me up in an apartment in downtown Minneapolis. I'm already looking at the Twins schedule to see when the Red Sox come to town.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Visitors
We have a regular Wild Kingdom going on in our backyard. We often have turkeys. Occassionally we have deer. Today was the first time for these visitors:
They're Here
United Air to Return 165 Reservations Jobs to U.S. From India
By Mary Schlangenstein Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- UAL Corp.’s United Airlines, the third-biggest North American carrier, will return 165 call-center jobs to the U.S. from India to help improve customer service. The jobs will be moved to Chicago and Hawaii, United told employees today. Workers initially will handle reservations and,beginning in April, will add customer-relations duties, the Chicago-based airline said. An evaluation “determined that bringing certain customer-relations positions back to the U.S. will provide the right level of focus this important function requires,” United said in thenotice to workers.
I have argued for a long time, that eventually companies would bring back call center jobs as a way of improving customer service. Outsourcing to lower cost countries is an important step for US companies to remain competitive and effecient. I completely support it. It's not the job loss that bothers me - that job loss is made up in a number of other ways. However, poor customer service does bother me. Too many companies have outsourced service functions to people who don't know how to resolve anything without consulting a FAQ website. US-based customer service will become a selling point for US-businesses soon, and United has taken one of the first shots at it.Sunday, February 8, 2009
When will this guy stop campaigning?
From Obama's weekly radio address:
"Let's be clear: We can't expect relief from the tired old theories that, in eight short years, doubled the national debt, threw our economy into a tailspin, and led us into this mess in the first place. We can't rely on a losing formula that offers only tax cuts as the answer to all our problems while ignoring our fundamental economic challenges – the crushing cost of health care or the inadequate state of so many schools; our addiction to foreign oil or our crumbling roads, bridges, and levees," he said. "The American people know that our challenges are great. They don't expect Democratic solutions or Republican solutions – they expect American solutions."
When will this guy stop the rhetoric? Presenting a laundry list of eight years worth of left pet projects and labeling it "stimulus" is harding grasping the ecomomic reigns and leading.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
U.S. GDP, Current Dollar and Real Dollar, 2000 - 2008
Year / Current $ / Real $
2000 / 9,817 / 9,817
2001 / 10,128 / 9,890
2002 / 10,470 / 10,049
2003 / 10,961 / 10,301
2004 / 11,686 / 10,676
2005 / 12,422 / 10,990
2006 / 13,178 / 11,295
2007 / 13,808 / 11,524
2008 / 14,421 / 11,712
U.S. GDP Percent Change, Year to Year
Year / Current $ / Real $
2000 / 5.9% / 3.7%
2001 / 3.2% / 0.8%
2002 / 3.4% / 1.6%
2003 / 4.7% / 2.5%
2004 / 6.6% / 3.6%
2005 / 6.3% / 2.9%
2006 / 6.1% / 2.8%
2007 / 4.8% / 2.0%
2008 / 3.6% / 0.5%
Yeah tax cuts really sucked didn't they?!? I'd rather throw a $1 trillion we don't have on a bunch of projects that will do little to stimulate [read sarcasm].
No! Insulate bad assets. Protect the financial system. Give people incentives to invest and spend. done.
"Let's be clear: We can't expect relief from the tired old theories that, in eight short years, doubled the national debt, threw our economy into a tailspin, and led us into this mess in the first place. We can't rely on a losing formula that offers only tax cuts as the answer to all our problems while ignoring our fundamental economic challenges – the crushing cost of health care or the inadequate state of so many schools; our addiction to foreign oil or our crumbling roads, bridges, and levees," he said. "The American people know that our challenges are great. They don't expect Democratic solutions or Republican solutions – they expect American solutions."
When will this guy stop the rhetoric? Presenting a laundry list of eight years worth of left pet projects and labeling it "stimulus" is harding grasping the ecomomic reigns and leading.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
U.S. GDP, Current Dollar and Real Dollar, 2000 - 2008
Year / Current $ / Real $
2000 / 9,817 / 9,817
2001 / 10,128 / 9,890
2002 / 10,470 / 10,049
2003 / 10,961 / 10,301
2004 / 11,686 / 10,676
2005 / 12,422 / 10,990
2006 / 13,178 / 11,295
2007 / 13,808 / 11,524
2008 / 14,421 / 11,712
U.S. GDP Percent Change, Year to Year
Year / Current $ / Real $
2000 / 5.9% / 3.7%
2001 / 3.2% / 0.8%
2002 / 3.4% / 1.6%
2003 / 4.7% / 2.5%
2004 / 6.6% / 3.6%
2005 / 6.3% / 2.9%
2006 / 6.1% / 2.8%
2007 / 4.8% / 2.0%
2008 / 3.6% / 0.5%
Yeah tax cuts really sucked didn't they?!? I'd rather throw a $1 trillion we don't have on a bunch of projects that will do little to stimulate [read sarcasm].
No! Insulate bad assets. Protect the financial system. Give people incentives to invest and spend. done.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Pelosi's Warning!
Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, warned Americans in her Feb 3rd news conference, and it could affect you! In fact, it affects EVERYONE (and then some).
"For every month that we don't pass an economic stimulus plan, five hundred million Americans lose their jobs."
Wow.
"For every month that we don't pass an economic stimulus plan, five hundred million Americans lose their jobs."
Wow.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Congrats Ross
From the Wall Street Journal yesterday:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123319688835727407.html#printMode
Small, High-End Insurer Courts Coastal Homeowners
By M.P. MCQUEEN
As large, mass-market homeowner-insurance companies continue withdrawing from coastal areas because of the hurricane threat, a small, high-end insurer is making a push for the wealthy among these customers.
Privilege Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange, a company headquartered in Fort Lauderdale and White Plains, N.Y., recently received licenses to sell policies in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.
Founded in Florida in 2006, the company also sells policies there and in South Carolina, and has applications pending with regulators in seven eastern states. The company currently serves about four thousand member-policyholders.
PURE's expansion comes even as Florida state regulators announced Tuesday that a unit of State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., intends to drop more than 700,000 homeowner policies there, a continuation of a trend that began several years ago after the record hurricane seasons of both 2004 and 2005.
About 20 smaller companies have started up in Florida recently to take away business from Citizen's Property Insurance Corp., a nonprofit alternative insurer, which is currently the largest property insurer in Florida. Meanwhile, eight new companies have been licensed to sell homeowners insurance in New York since 2007.
PURE President and CEO Ross Buchmueller, who formerly was president of American International Group Inc.'s Private Client Group and an executive at Chubb Corp., says PURE is able to write competitively priced policies in high-risk areas because it specializes in large, well-built homes valued at $1 million or more, which industry data suggest have held up well in recent disasters.
PURE competes primarily with high-end insurers like AIG, Chubb and Fireman's Fund Insurance Co., as well as excess and surplus lines in the unregulated market, to cover high-value luxury and waterfront homes and various other properties in communities like the Hamptons in New York, according to Mr. Buchmueller.
Scott Edwards, 63 years old, a retired banker who owns homes in North and South Carolina, said that he switched to PURE insurance in 2008 from an excess and surplus lines insurer for his retirement home near Georgetown, S.C., on the recommendation of his insurance agent.
He said that he initially paid about $7,000 in annual premiums to insure the newly built 4,000-square-foot home with wind- and flood-resistant construction and a replacement cost of more than $1 million.
But in 2006, after Hurricane Katrina, his premium doubled to $14,000. Since switching to PURE, he said his premium is back to $7,000 again and he has a substantially lower deductible for windstorm damage.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123319688835727407.html#printMode
Small, High-End Insurer Courts Coastal Homeowners
By M.P. MCQUEEN
As large, mass-market homeowner-insurance companies continue withdrawing from coastal areas because of the hurricane threat, a small, high-end insurer is making a push for the wealthy among these customers.
Privilege Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange, a company headquartered in Fort Lauderdale and White Plains, N.Y., recently received licenses to sell policies in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.
Founded in Florida in 2006, the company also sells policies there and in South Carolina, and has applications pending with regulators in seven eastern states. The company currently serves about four thousand member-policyholders.
PURE's expansion comes even as Florida state regulators announced Tuesday that a unit of State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., intends to drop more than 700,000 homeowner policies there, a continuation of a trend that began several years ago after the record hurricane seasons of both 2004 and 2005.
About 20 smaller companies have started up in Florida recently to take away business from Citizen's Property Insurance Corp., a nonprofit alternative insurer, which is currently the largest property insurer in Florida. Meanwhile, eight new companies have been licensed to sell homeowners insurance in New York since 2007.
PURE President and CEO Ross Buchmueller, who formerly was president of American International Group Inc.'s Private Client Group and an executive at Chubb Corp., says PURE is able to write competitively priced policies in high-risk areas because it specializes in large, well-built homes valued at $1 million or more, which industry data suggest have held up well in recent disasters.
PURE competes primarily with high-end insurers like AIG, Chubb and Fireman's Fund Insurance Co., as well as excess and surplus lines in the unregulated market, to cover high-value luxury and waterfront homes and various other properties in communities like the Hamptons in New York, according to Mr. Buchmueller.
Scott Edwards, 63 years old, a retired banker who owns homes in North and South Carolina, said that he switched to PURE insurance in 2008 from an excess and surplus lines insurer for his retirement home near Georgetown, S.C., on the recommendation of his insurance agent.
He said that he initially paid about $7,000 in annual premiums to insure the newly built 4,000-square-foot home with wind- and flood-resistant construction and a replacement cost of more than $1 million.
But in 2006, after Hurricane Katrina, his premium doubled to $14,000. Since switching to PURE, he said his premium is back to $7,000 again and he has a substantially lower deductible for windstorm damage.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Pico Getaway, Getaway
In last year's school auction we won the bid to a weekend at a ski on/ski off condo on Pico (located adjacent to Killington). We utilized it on this past Martin Luther King Day weekend. Although the accomidations would be better described as a walk, ski, take-off-your-skis, hike, ski on/off condo, it was still nice not to have to drive to the mountain.
After our experience at Stowe, and the horror stories I had heard about conditions, I expected the worst. In fact, before we had arrived, the Pico website said something about only 3 of 6 lifts being open. ugh. However, the conditions were suprisingly good for Vermont. Solid packed powder with very little ice, and all the lifts were open. The weather was cold, but we came prepared.
There were few green trails, so the kids stuck to blue (intermediate) slopes. We even hit the summit twice.
The following is a 4:30 minute video filmed on our last day.
After our experience at Stowe, and the horror stories I had heard about conditions, I expected the worst. In fact, before we had arrived, the Pico website said something about only 3 of 6 lifts being open. ugh. However, the conditions were suprisingly good for Vermont. Solid packed powder with very little ice, and all the lifts were open. The weather was cold, but we came prepared.
There were few green trails, so the kids stuck to blue (intermediate) slopes. We even hit the summit twice.
The following is a 4:30 minute video filmed on our last day.
Monday, January 19, 2009
It's the Party, Stupid
The actual swearing-in ceremony - $1.24 million.
Additionally, the federal government estimates that it will spend roughly $49 million on the inaugural weekend.
Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have requested another $75 million from the federal government to help pay for their share of police, fire and medical services.
Finally, private donors have contributed $45 million for the parties.
Total cost - $170 million. Nice.
Source: ABC News
Additionally, the federal government estimates that it will spend roughly $49 million on the inaugural weekend.
Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have requested another $75 million from the federal government to help pay for their share of police, fire and medical services.
Finally, private donors have contributed $45 million for the parties.
Total cost - $170 million. Nice.
Source: ABC News
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
New Year's Eve Trek
We took the 6 hour drive on New Year's Eve day to Northern Vermont to ring in the new year with our friends the Nash's. With the threat of significant snow between here and there, the car hit the road 3 1/2 hours early at 5:30am. We made it through Springfield before the snow started. It accumulated quickly, but Vermont does a good job in keeping at least one highway lane in decent condition.
Tom is a Burlington police officer. Tom and Pam's daughter, Isabella, for those that remember was born extremely premature. Thanks to great medical care, if there are any lingering effects, it is not obvious (apparently the March of Dimes was very supportive, so if you are looking for a good charity - www.marchofdimes.com/howtohelp/howtohelp.asp). She is four years old now and doing great.
It was quite enjoyable for us to see her playing with Katie and Emily.
We were there four days - two of which we took to the slopes of Stowe. The first day was -2 degrees (pre-wind chill), the second day was better at 15. I had so many layers on, getting the camera out was not an option. The kids skiied well even though it was the first time this year. Stowe is rather lacking of Green (Easy) trails, but they handled the Blue (Intermediate) admirably despite pretty icy conditions.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
This is what we've come to
I've argued that the list of those applying for government TARP money will get ridiculous, but I never expected this...
Hustler founder Larry Flynt and Girls Gone Wild creator Joe Francis have written to Secty of Treasury Hank Paulson and their congressman, Henry Waxman requesting $5 billion of funds under TARP. Their argument is that the weak economic conditions have hurt adult video sales - which are down 22% year over year.
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-07-2009/0004950702&EDATE=
Although clearly a publicity ploy, I guess I'd rather it go to them than the auto industry...
Hustler founder Larry Flynt and Girls Gone Wild creator Joe Francis have written to Secty of Treasury Hank Paulson and their congressman, Henry Waxman requesting $5 billion of funds under TARP. Their argument is that the weak economic conditions have hurt adult video sales - which are down 22% year over year.
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-07-2009/0004950702&EDATE=
Although clearly a publicity ploy, I guess I'd rather it go to them than the auto industry...
Saturday, January 3, 2009
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