Thursday, December 18, 2008

Tex are Can ah

It sounds like the Red Sox are closing in on First Basemen Mark Texiera. The Sox brass has flown to Texas to potentially ink a deal. I hope we get this guy as much as anyone. We need a strong, reliable bat in the lineup, and no one scared me more on the Angels at the end of last year than facing him.

The guy can hit and play the field. Here's his stat line on his 54 games with the Angels:

Average: .358
On-Base: .449
Slugging: .632
HR: 13

Although those are the best numbers of his entire career, his other seasons aren't too shabby.

But here's a couple things that scare me a little, and would give me cold feet in signing him to a 8-year $184 million contract.

1. He's only made the All-Star team once, and it was back in 2005.

2. Baseball Reference.com (good stat site: www.baseball-reference.com) measures something called similarity scores. It allows you to compare players from different eras. Here are Texiera's comps:

Miguel Cabrera (2003-2008), Glenn Davis (1984-1993), Zeke Bonura (1934-1940), Bob Horner (1977-1988), Ripper Collins (1931-1941), Don Hurst (1928-1934), Kevin Mitchell (1983-1988), Aubrey Huff (2000-2008).

Dropping off names I clearly wouldn't know, lets stick with Cabrera, Mitchell, and Huff

Not exactly a murders' row even though Cabrera's a pretty solid player, and can play multiple positions. Huff just signed a FA deal last Winter for $8 million. Far from $23 million. Texiera is better than Huff, but is he $15 million better?

Baseball Reference also does similarity scores based on age. Here are Texiera's comps for players through 28 years old:

Carlos Delgado, Kent Hrbeck, Fred McGriff, Jim Thome, Will Clark, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovey Richie Sexton, Shawn Green, Paul Konerko

Ok. This list is better - but who's kidding who. I was hoping it would say Babe Ruth. We'll be saddled with this guy for a long time. I just hope he's worth it. I know its blasphamy around Boston, but I would have rather spent $27 million per year on A-rod last year. Think about it. I said it at the time, but in retrospect it looks even better. Last offseason, sign A-rod after his opt-out, move him back to short, trade Manny, keep CoCo and Ellsbury, develop Lowry as your future 3B. In that scenario, you'd have had kept the same power in your lineup and improved your defense. Manny would have been gone earlier, and we would have picked up something in his trade. Maybe you still got Bay, and CoCo remained the fourth outfielder.

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