Watching a game in person provides a different perspective than watching it on TV. In person, you can watch certain aspects of the game, but miss how they fit into the big picture. Television allows you to see the action as well as the nuances that instant replay allow.
In the last week and a half, I had resolved myself to the fact that the Giants played a better game, and the Patriots came out flat. Living in New York, I don't hate the Giants (I only hate Tight End Jeremy Shocky, but that story is for another time). In fact, the Giants are my "favorite NFC team." Dubious praise, I realize, but given my feelings for some of the other New York teams, its a big step. If we had lost to the Green Bay Packers, it would have been easier because I wouldn't have to see all the hats, gear and TV coverage. However, inside my hurt that the Patriots lost, I actually have a sliver of happiness for Giants' fans.
However, I finally got the courage to watch Super Bowl XLII on TV. I can't believe we lost that game!
The Patriots first and last drives of the game were pure Patriot things of beauty. The middle was a misery of bad play calling mixed with terrible adjustments.
Let's look at the game in pieces:
First half:
At Football Outsiders, we have done work on what we refer to as fumble luck. In general, defenses and offenses have about equal odds of recovering a fumble, and therefore (1) fumbles are really bad for the offense, and (2) fumble recoveries are pure luck. The Giants fumbled two times in the first half. The first on their own 30, Bradshaw fumbled and Pierre Woods fell on the ball. At that point, the Patriots had good momentum, and deep in the Giants terrirory would surely have scored something. However, somehow, Bradshaw goes under Woods and takes the ball back. Fumble recovery luck is one thing, losing a fumble recovery when you are laying on the ball is in completely another realm! Later in te half, Thomas strip sack of Manning sent the ball flying. Vrabel has a lock on the ball, but one of the Giants is able to illegally bat it forward and Steve Smith recovers. It didn't lead to points, but it massively changed field position.
Manning threw one interception (actually it was really a Steve Smith drop), but should have thrown another. In the first half, while backpeddling, Manning lobbed up a duck into triple coverage, Randall Gay with a hurting arm, can't get his hands to close on it.
The Patriots final drive of the half was another good drive, but for a strip sack of Brady on the Giants 30. Fumble luck again falls in the Giants favor - New York recovers.
In the first half, the Patriots defense played quite well. Two of the biggest plays of the first half were big Giant push offs. The long bomb to Toomer is well documented. He clearly pushed Hobbs by the facemask to create seperation. However, what has gone unnoticed was the push off on the Giants first 1st down of the game. The situation was 3rd and 5, from mid-Giant territory. Burress ran a route that plowed into Randall Gay, and then he thrust his arms into Gay sending him back 1-2 yards, and proceeded to curl into the now open middle for a nine yard reception and a continuation of the Giants drive. Announcer Troy Aikman criticized Gay for "sitting on the route" and praised Burress for "finding the hole for a simple pitch and catch." This wasn't a ticky-tacky kind of thing, but a blatent push. I am surprised the announcers completely missed it.
Overall, both defenses played well in the first half. The Patriots were blitzing, but not getting to Manning. Nevertheless, they held the Giants to 3 points. The Giants were doing an excellent job of disguising the blitz. With a spread offense and quick throws, Brady was still able to make his quick reads. However, on longer developing plays, he didn't have enough time. They were trying a couple of different things on offense that didn't work two 3-and-outs. One drive was a lame attempt at running the ball, and one resulted in back-to-back sacks. Yet they had successes, and clearly halftime adjustments would be made.
If you had told me that the Giants fumbled twice, threw two interceptible balls, and only scored 3 points, I would have responded that the score must have been 21-3.
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