Katie's Silent Night

Goodbye Friend

Sad news was delivered Saturday when I found that my fraternity brother and college suite-mate had late stage lung cancer and after showing improvement in November had taken a turn for the worst. By that evening, I received an email that he had passed away.

Shady Kanfi, a Canadian, was a lifelong Montreal Canadians fan. Together with me, as a Bruins fan, we had a fun rivalry. Shady was smart and quick witted. He entered Babson a year after I did, but was part of my graduating class, finishing in three years.

My junior year, we (and two others) traveled on Spring Break to California. All we had were plane tickets and a rent-a-car. We traveled between Los Angeles and San Diego (and a quick jaunt to Tijuana) staying at local chapters of our fraternity. We housed at UCLA, Cal State Long Beach and San Diego State University. It was a terrific trip. By senior year, Shady had enough credits to be considered a Senior and with four other fraternity brothers we secured one of the coveted on-campus suites. It was an excellent year.

After college, Shady went back to Canada, and I to New York. After a couple of years, his email changed, and without things such as Facebook and Blogs, most of us lost touch with him.

In 2005, I had a blog that gave updates from some of our college fraternity brothers. I made this post:

See kids, watching a lot of TV can be useful:

Although Shady has failed to provide me his own update, I feel I know quite a bit more about him now. My wife, who is addicted to home make0ver shows, was watching TLC's Trading Spaces and I the Red Sox game on the nearby computer. Finally, after listening to babble of which colors to pick and what fabric matches, I finally get a glimpse of the "contestants" or
"home-owners." I lean over to my wife, and ask, "what is that guy's name?"

"Doug?" she replies citing one of the hosts. "No, the guy standing next to him..."

"Shady."

"Holy s***. I know him."

So, needless to say, I watched the rest of the show.

Shady, at the time of the show's taping, had been married for about 1 1/2 years to a woman he met through a friend at a New Year's Eve party. They had, again at the time of the taping whenever the hell that was, recently bought their first house (5 weeks prior).

The little Cannuck looks about the same, but for some hair moving from his head to his face.

Check your local listings....

I received the following reply comment:

Frankly I think you're being a little harsh on Shady. I think it shows great consideration on his part to have gone through the trouble of getting on American TV in order to update his friends in the US about what he's been up to lately.

Given that Shady has missed watching the Bruins lose to their Northern neighbours for quite some time, it is only reasonable to expect that he might have been a little too upset to stay in touch using regular means.

By the way, I caught the show in question and found your friend from college and his wife to be quite witty and charming. And what a wonderful house they have! Surely they must be leading a charmed and wonderful life.

- A completely unrelated and anonymous person

With the emergence of Facebook, we were able to trade jabs about the Bruins and Canadians yet again.

He went silent of late, and I often wondered why. I got news Saturday during dinner that, Shady "was diagnosed with advanced lung cancer in May of this year. He initially responded amazing well to an experimental drug, but that only lasted a few months. Around late summer he began to feel worse, and his oncologist switched him to another medication. Shady wrote that he began to feel better in early November, but has now taken a very serious turn for the worse." Our friend, Dan, was on his way to his hospital bedside. However, Dan didn't make it there in time. "I'm sorry to say that Shady passed away shortly before we arrived in Montreal this evening."

Shady was a great person. I don't know anyone that wasn't taken by his wit and charm. He was no dummy. I mentioned he graduated Babson in 3 years. He went on to get a Masters in International Relations from John Hopkins. If that wasn't enough, he was in the middle of getting his Ph.D. from McGill University, which expected to complete in 2012. He was truly leading a "a charmed and wonderful life." Unfortunately, this terrible disease ended it far too quickly - 8 days prior to his 40th birthday. Shady leaves a wife and two children, including a daughter that was born only months ago. Very sad.

I'll miss you buddy. Rest in peace. Go Habs.

Snow

Although not sure it was classified as a blizzard, we had quite a snowy weekend. Minneapolis-St. Paul area received the most snow in a single December day since records began in the late 19th century. My guess is we got 15-16" between Friday night and Sunday morning. With the heavy winds, drifts were a big issue. Snow on our deck piled up such that it covered the lower parts of our dining room windows.

Basically, we barely left the neighborhood, and spent most of the time in the house, kids included. Fortunately, our two "events" this weekend were both neighbor parties.

Honking my horn

Wednesday Dec 8 Blog Post:"we got the Dolphins next, there's an easy division win." Guess what buddy, your Jets are 10th overall, Dolphins are 11th. On that same weighted basis, Dolphins are 3 spots ahead of you! Good luck on that one.

Miami 10, J-E-T-S 6

New prediction: Jets will be fighting for their playoff lives in week 17, a game against the lowly (but revitalized) Bills.

Imagine

Pats - Jets

I could not be happier about a single football game that did not have Roman numerals following it. I was so sick of the Jets pre-game talk. The Jets are a 6-6 team masquerading as 9-3. Including the results of this past week, Football Outsiders ranks the Jets at best the 10th in football, and on a weighted basis (giving more weight to the nearest games, and less to the earlier games) are 13th. Their Estimated Wins (a statistic that emphasizes consistency in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close the projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule) estimates that the Jets should be 7-5. FO also ranks the Jets defense 7th (10th weighted), and most of that is based on their ability against the run. The are below average against the pass.

So, it was quite satisfying to watch this past Monday Night Football game. It was only made better watching this:



Best line to be eaten later, "we got the Dolphins next, there's an easy division win." Guess what buddy, your Jets are 10th overall, Dolphins are 11th. On that same weighted basis, Dolphins are 3 spots ahead of you! Good luck on that one.

So great

Ahead of the very interesting NE/NYJ matchup, this video shows just how great a coach Belichick is.



Love the exchange with Vinatieri at the end too.

V-Mart Closed

Red Sox let Victor Martinez sign with the Tigers for a 4-year $50mm contract. No brainer in my opinion. Martinez was a short term solution to the Sox lack of power. There's no way Martinez was going to fit into the Sox scheme for the next four years. He's 33 now, and not likely catching for the next four years. I do like this little nugget out of ESPN:

"Martinez is a Type A free agent, meaning the Red Sox will receive the Tigers’ No. 1 pick (No. 19 overall) and a first-round “sandwich” pick (a pick that will come after the regular first round and before the second round). Next June’s draft class is anticipated to be very strong, and the ’11 draft may be the last in which the Sox will be able to employ their very successful strategy of paying above slot in later rounds for premium talent that dropped because of contract demands."

As an added benefit, maybe it means Varitek is coming back.

Student Council

I forgot to mention, but Emily was elected Student council Rep for the third grade.

Click "Student Council" for link

Everyone note that Jerry Brown is not responsible!

Political statement absurdities are always abundant. However, this statement recently caught my attention.

From Bloomberg:

"Nov. 12-- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, citing a $25.4 billion budget gap over the next 19 months, declared a fiscal emergency and called lawmakers to a special session next month to begin dealing with the problem.

Schwarzenegger, a Republican whose term ends in January, late yesterday ordered the session to start Dec. 6, the day newly elected legislators are sworn in....

By Jan. 10, Governor-elect Jerry Brown, a Democrat who will be sworn in Jan. 3, must propose a plan to erase the next year’s deficit... “This special session underscores the enormous challenges facing the state,” Evan Westrup, a spokesman for Brown, said yesterday in a statement. “While the governor-elect did not create this fiscal crisis, he and his transition team will continue the work they started after election day, collaborating with administration and department of finance officials, the legislative analyst’s office, legislators, and others to address California’s budget problems.”

Wow! Didn't create it, huh? Really? A man who's last two jobs were State Attorney General, and Mayor of Oakland since 1999 and doesn't take office until January 2011, didn't create the state's financial crisis? NO ****!?!?! Why? Why preface your official public statement with such an obvious fact, but for the ability to START your term telling everyone, "it's not my fault!"

Consider this my official statement (I unfortunately, do not have a spokesperson ... yet):

"While Mr. Moore is not a resident nor governing official of the state, and thereby in no way responsible for the California fiscal crisis, he will make every effort to stimulate the California economy when there."

Halloween & Couple other random

Our "Zombie" Fairies - whatever that means

The neighborhood Trick or Treat crew

Emily's class pumpkins - we won it at Octoberfest


Leftover Disney picture

Katie's Sushi dessert - candy made with Rice Krispy treats, fruit roll-ups, Swedish fish, gummy worms and chocolate "soy" sauce.

Jobs for a brighter and more prosperous future

Solyndra is a solar panel manufacturing company in California. One of the few remaining U.S. solar operations. As reported by the Oakland Tribune, "the company's fortunes sparkled in September 2009, when the Obama administration announced $535 million in taxpayer loans to finance construction of a new solar-equipment factory. In December 2009, the company filed for an initial public offering of its stock expected to raise $300 million. In May, Obama toured the Solyndra facilities in Fremont." He touted how he was visiting a facility that was, "actually doing extraordinary work of building up America." He also gave "credit to those in the back, who are building the facility so we can put more people back to work and build more solar panels." He follows on with, "It's here with companies like Solyndra are leading the way toward a brighter and more prosperous future... We need to build a foundation built on growth... Go back to making things...go back to exports. The engine will always be companies like Solyndra."

Grrrreeeeat. The problem here is that we can provide loans and grants (which BTW are very difficult to get) so that we can tout a "Green industry" that provides "jobs for our future," but we don't have economic policies and business policies that promote growth. My experience with one Massachusetts solar company is that the government loves to talk about green jobs and developing at-home technology manufacturing, but does very little about it.

Well, it was announced Wednesday that Solyndra (which dumped its IPO plans not long after Obama walked out their doors) is scrapping its expansion plans at that same Freemont facility (which was to provide 1,000 new jobs), is closing another U.S.-based factory, and laying off 250-350 workers.

Why? Because it can't compete with the manufacturers in China who can provide the same (or better) solar panels for substantially less cost.

So thanks for that.

People are Awesome

Amazing video of some amazing things

Trip Summary

We had a good (tiring) trip. This was our third time to Disney, so we have in down to an extent. Over four days, we hit Magic Kingdom three times with half days at each of Hollywood Studios, Blizzard Beach (water park), and Epcot. The kids were interested in getting autographs and pictures from all characters - EXCEPT princesses.

The kids are old enough that we were able to tackle some of the more daring rides. Katie started off timid. Although Space Mountain was her favorite ride last trip (in 2007), she was reluctant to ride it at the beginning. However, it turned around by the end. The last day, we rode Space Mountain three times. Other favorites included Splash Mountain, Thunder Mountain Railroad, Mickey's Philharmagic, Peter Pan, Buzz Lightyear's [something], Aladdin's Magic Carpet Ride.

Hollywood Studios was a bit of a disappointment. We felt that with the kids older, they would have more stuff to do. There was, in fact, very little to do. Emily and I LOVED the Aerosmith Rock and Roller Coaster (Katie wouldn't go). And neither one of them would do the Tower of Terror. The nightime show Fantasmic was the only real family highlight.

Epcot is... well, Epcot. Odd place. Lots of walking around. We had a nice lunch in France (only after finding the English pub had an hour and a half wait). There are a few fun rides there. Soarin - a virtual hand glider over a virtual California - is really cool. GM's Test Track was also fun with your open air car hitting 65 miles an hour. Finally Mission Space - a simulated rocket ship - was also an enjoyable experience (again - Katie passed). We ate dinner at Corral Reef - a seafood restaurant inside Epcot's aquarium. Something seemed wrong about that.

We have now been to Disney at three different times of year - April, August and now October. Although more crowded than we expected (lots of New Englanders with Red Sox, Celtics and Patriots gear), October was the best timing of the three. August and October had similar crowds, but it was 20-30 degrees cooler. April was a zoo.

Dis Pics

Remembering back to August 2007...

And April 2006...

And away we go

The kids have three days off for Teacher conferences. We had a timeshare week expiring in October. Consequently, we're off to Disney World.

We leave tonight, and unfortunately have to connect through Dallas. Direct flight ticket prices on Delta were just ridiculous. We'll spend four full days there, and the flight home Sunday morning (again through Dallas). The good news is that we used miles to fly and got a good deal - first class all the way.

We'll update the trip along the way as possible.

Fourth

The Patriots picked up Deion Branch for a fourth round draft pick earlier this week. I've heard a certain school of thought on this. It basically goes, "Branch has fallen off the face of the earth and why bring him back other than for sentimentality, and a fourth round pick is a waste of a pick."

Let me ask you this, would you trade any of the following for Deion Branch - even if he was only slated as your third receiver?

1. Rich Ohrnberger - Offensive lineman who is currently on the practice squad
2. Jonathan Wilhite - back up CB
3. Kareem Brown - Released defensive lineman
4. Garrett Mills - Released TE
5. James Sanders - occasional starter at Safety

If the answer was yes to those names, you should be fine with Deion. Those were our fourth round picks from 2005 - 2009.

Great demonstrative tax article

Harvard Econ Professor, Greg Mankiw, makes a great demonstrative case against higher marginal tax rates on the "rich." His NY Times OpEd, I Can Afford Higher Taxes. But They’ll Make Me Work Less, is a great (and easy) read. [Free registration required]

Click Here

Here's the gist of it (although the context of the article is good):

Suppose that some editor offered me $1,000 to write an article. If there were no taxes of any kind, this $1,000 of income would translate into $1,000 in extra saving. If I invested it in the stock of a company that earned, say, 8 percent a year on its capital, then 30 years from now, when I pass on, my children would inherit about $10,000. That is simply the miracle of compounding.

Now let’s put taxes into the calculus. First, assuming that the Bush tax cuts expire, I would pay 39.6 percent in federal income taxes on that extra income. Beyond that, the phaseout of deductions adds 1.2 percentage points to my effective marginal tax rate. I also pay Medicare tax, which the recent health care bill is raising to 3.8 percent, starting in 2013. And in Massachusetts, I pay 5.3 percent in state income taxes, part of which I get back as a federal deduction. Putting all those taxes together, that $1,000 of pretax income becomes only $523 of saving.

And that saving no longer earns 8 percent. First, the corporation in which I have invested pays a 35 percent corporate tax on its earnings. So I get only 5.2 percent in dividends and capital gains. Then, on that income, I pay taxes at the federal and state level. As a result, I earn about 4 percent after taxes, and the $523 in saving grows to $1,700 after 30 years.

Then, when my children inherit the money, the estate tax will kick in. The marginal estate tax rate is scheduled to go as high as 55 percent next year, but Congress may reduce it a bit. Most likely, when that $1,700 enters my estate, my kids will get, at most, $1,000 of it.

HERE’S the bottom line: Without any taxes, accepting that editor’s assignment would have yielded my children an extra $10,000. With taxes, it yields only $1,000. In effect, once the entire tax system is taken into account, my family’s marginal tax rate is about 90 percent. Is it any wonder that I turn down most of the money-making opportunities I am offered?

Eye on the Governor

Dayton is a tax the rich populist. He's a disaster. Independent Horner is screwing things up for business-minded Emmer. I never understood the concept of the independent candidate. Almost by definition you help the guy who is LEAST like you, and split the most like-minded. Independent voters who have shown where their voting preferences lie need to step up and not throw away their vote.

Disappointment

I hate the loss of Randy Moss. For all his lack of public relations ability, the guy is a constant threat on the field - even if this year has not exactly been his best. And as a bonus, Brady loves playing with him. His catch rate is down to 41%, and Football Outsiders ranks him as only the 44th best receiver this year. However, that doesn't take into consideration the fact that he sees quite a few double teams. The guy has the potential to be thrilling and explosive at any moment.

Maybe it was time. However, I'd rather see him in our uniform than someone elses - especially when that other uniform will be playing in Foxboro on Halloween. The Vikes play the Jets on Monday (will this be the first time a player has had back-to-back weeks on MNF?), and the Patriots are on bye. Inside the trading deadline, the timing couldn't have been better from a disruption point of view. Nevertheless, I would have rather seen him stay the remainder of the season and go somewhere else next year. NE would have received a 5th round compensation pick in 2012.

A friend of mine compared this trade to that of Nomar. I disagree. Nomar had to go to make the Red Sox a better team. I don't think Randy did. If you want to be optimistic, you could compare it to the Lawyer Milloy release in 2002. I'm not THAT optimistic.

I feel bad for Emily. Her Patriots jersey is #81 - Moss.

March, march, march

Friday was Westonka High School Homecoming. They have a short (somewhat lame) parade prior to the football game against Orono. What is nice is that they incorporate the middle school and elementary schools into the activity. The Third Grade got to close out the parade with their kazoo band, while singing the fight song. Emily enjoyed it.

The video was taken with my cellphone, so not exactly the best:

Big Short

Finished reading Michael Lewis' The Big Short. I've read many of his books, and really enjoy his writing style. This book is no different. Lewis focuses on a few smart, dedicated and especially odd investors who grappled with one of the greatest trades of all-time - short the subprime bubble. It is an in-depth look at the underpinnings of the financial crisis without getting too technical, and I would recommend it to all kinds of readers.

The underlying theme that impressed me most about the characters in the book was the dedication and commitment these people had to the trade, and the uphill battle most of them endured to keep it on. These people started shorting the subprime market as far back as 2005. It took 2-years to begin paying off - and pay off big it did. However, during that 2-year period each of these characters faced significant adversity from their investors - who all wanted them to unwind the trade!

John Paulson, the most famous winner in this trade, isn't covered in this book other than a few references. He probably didn't grant Lewis access. However, Lewis in more than one instance, insinuates that Paulson didn't come up with this trade alone. Rather, one of the characters in the book supplied him with the idea.

My boss during this period knew Paulson. They had worked together at Bear Stearns. When word came out in 2007 that Paulson had made a killing betting against subprime mortgages, my Boss berated himself (and tangentially us) for "not seeing it." We had long discussions about it when I was lucky enough to occasionally ride along during his daily car service. Without even a full understanding of how the trade worked, I would argue that it wasn't that easy, but he couldn't let it go. With more information now, it is even more apparent that we couldn't have pulled it off. As seen from this book, 1. you basically had to be introduced to this trade to even know it existed. Many of the securities that allowed you to go short were very esoteric; 2. you had to understand the nature of the trade, and dedicate significant analytical resources to know what you were shorting; 3. you had to be in the trade well prior to 2007 and stay in it!

The last point is the most salient. My boss was insistent after-the-fact that we should have been involved. However, to be "involved" meant putting this trade on in size in 2005 (or at least in early 2006) - and lose small amounts of money for the next 14-26 months straight. During that time, you had to endure investor complaints and threats that, "this isn't your area of expertise, you are wrong about this! Get out or give us our money back!" Even before reading this book, I knew from articles that Paulson's investors thought he was nuts! My boss (and particularly his partner) didn't have the stomach for that. They would have caved at the first investor letter. This trade would have been shuttered in the first six months, for sure.

20/20 hindsight is great for figuring out what you should have done. Having the fortitude and stamina to do it in real-time - and finish it out is something different altogether. The characters in The Big Short proved it, and it makes compelling reading.

Faulk!

The Patriots 2nd half ineptitude continues. Very frustrating. However, the trend of Boston Sports injuries is even more concerning. The Red Sox never ending DL list - which in its own right probably fields an all-star team - has carried on to the Patriots.

The loss of Faulk is serious blow to our future 3rd down efficiency. Kevin is such a versatile threat, that a formation that includes Faulk can run almost type of play - screen, draw, run, pass. Last year's loss to Indy aside, Faulk is amazingly efficient.

Sad day for the Patriots if Faulk truly is out for the season.

Weekend not so bored

A little Saturday morning boarding - 7:30am. Air was 47 degrees, water 61.

Puget Sound

Although now three weeks ago, we had a nice mini-vacation to the San Juan Islands - north of Seattle. My friend, Peter, got married on Orcas Island. In addition to the wedding, we took a car tour of the island, drove to the top of Mount Constitution which had great views of the Puget Sound, Vancouver and the other San Juan Islands, and went on a whale watch.

We had some time to kill between our arrival at SEA-TAC and our flight out to Orcas. We grabbed a cab and spent a couple hours in Seattle's Public Market at Pike's Place.


We arrived in Orcas on a small 9-seat plane. It was a pretty incredible trip in.





Our whale watch was somewhat spontaneous. Because we couldn't get off the island when we originally intended, we had an extra day on our hands. Some whale watching ships have 40-60 people. Our small boat had 7. It was a nice set up.

Before catching the transient Orca whales, we surprised some seals.


There was a pack of five Orcas that we followed for close to an hour and a half.








Since the whales were spotted early in the day, a number of boats were on their trail.


Finally, on the way home we drove past a nature preserve island which had a large collection of American Bald Eagles. It was quite a site.

What Tony Said

Former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has a new book out. I have seen a few clips from it. What particularly interests me are comments he makes about George W. Bush:

"One of the most ludicrous caricatures of George is that he was a dumb idiot who stumbled into the presidency," writes Blair. "No one stumbles into that job, and the history of American presidential campaigns is littered with the corpses of those who were supposed to be brilliant but who nonetheless failed because brilliance is not enough."

He continues: "To succeed in U.S. politics, or that of the U.K., you have to be more than clever. You have to be able to connect and you have to be able to articulate that connection in plain language. The plainness of the language then leads people to look past the brainpower involved. Reagan was clever. Thatcher was clever. And sometimes the very plainness touches something else: a simplicity that is the product of a decisive nature."

From Hot Air:
Detailing the close professional and personal relationship which developed between the two leaders in the wake of the 2001 terror attacks in the U.S. and during the build-up to the Iraq war in 2003, Blair writes that Bush was “very smart” while having “immense simplicity in how he saw the world.”

“Right or wrong, it led to decisive leadership… he sincerely believed in spreading freedom and democracy,” he writes in “A Journey;” which hit book stores in the UK on Wednesday…

“I was asked recently which of the political leaders I had met had most integrity. I listed George near the top. He had genuine integrity and as much political courage as any leader I ever met,” he writes.

The U.S. Media is quick to create caricatures of those they cover. SNL skits become public reality. I have always argued that George Bush had to be a man of greater intellect than he was portrayed. Yes, his speaking style seems hick, and he struggles with written speeches; however, too many men and women - very smart ones at that - were impressed with him, followed him, and went to battle for him. The saying goes, you can judge a man by the company he keeps. Smart people don't go to bat for bumbling idiots. Every account I have read of him by people who have worked directly for and with him, suggests he's a diligent, loyal character who grasps complex situations. He had a black/white approach to many an item and that bothers some; however, it shouldn't be misconstrued as idiocy.

His low key post-presidency despite the constant attacks he takes has been admirable. He was here in Wayzata last week to raise money for his library. No press, no speeches, no public communication. The only reason I even knew it existed is that we passed the event by car, and the chef of the restaurant we attended happened to be working the event. I Googled the event, as surely there would be some press piece announcing his arrival. Nothing. Zero.

A couple of months ago, Laura and George Bush attended the homecoming of some soldiers from Iraq. He made a surprise greeting of the troops, shaking all their hands, and chatting with many of them. Obviously it was a big PR function with lots of news media. Nope. The only images that emerged came from the returning soldiers putting pictures up on Facebook.

Words of wisdom

Good words of wisdom from the blog, The Big Picture:

"One of the things we have harped on around here is the tendency for humans to be backwards looking in their sentiment.

The Recency Effect means we monkeys place disproportionate emphasis on recent stimuli or observations, regardless of worth or significance. Indeed, investors become bullish after they buy stocks, bearish after they sell them, as part of the self-rationalization process to justify their actions."

As I said to someone just yesterday, it's tough always striving to play the role of contrarian.

Jets...class act.

I got Tyler, he's 3... LaKesha, she's 3 ... Jersey...3...

How can he possibly remember the playbook? His brain is filled with Baby names.

Number of the Day - 17

17 ... 17 Blown Saves for the Red Sox this season. Only two teams have blown more, 40-75 Baltimore and 57-56 Florida Marlins. Yikes. Now, the Red Sox save percentage is 67%, which ranks them 16th out of 30 teams in baseball. Poor, but not terrible. The problem comes from too MANY save opportunities. The Yankees have 11 blown saves including the one from Mariano yesterday. However, since they often blow teams out, the Yankees only have had 39 save opportunities. The Red Sox have 51 - Fifty One! Nearly one out of every two games is a save opportunity. Papelbon has 6 blown saves this year, matching a high for the year for an entire season. We still have 46 some odd games to play. Although the number of save situations has placed the Red Sox in a difficult predicament, it hasn't lead to an overuse of their closer, Papelbon. His appearences are in-line with the other closers in the league. So what's going on with Pap, and what happens next year?

In the last two years, Papelbon's WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inn Pitched)has been elevated at 1.15 for both years. 2006, 7 and 8 were all under 1.0. Yet, 1.15 isn't terrible. In fact, among the American League closers, it's above average, but not dominant. Mariano Rivera is at 0.71, and hasn't had a season above 1.12 since his first year as a closer at 1.19. Still young and unproven, but Daniel Bard is at 0.86.

The killer has been Pap's ERA. At 3.65, it's almost twice that of last season, and the highest of his career by almost an entire run. He's given up six homeruns and 13 doubles year-to-date, both more than any other full SEASON. His strikeouts per 9 innings pitched is down by almost two. Opponents are only batting .209 against him, but those that hit him, hit him hard. Opponent Slugging Percentage is .379 (compare that to Mariano at a .156 average and .224 slugging). Some of the difference can be attributed to Pap is a fly-ball pitcher, whereas with his cutter Mariano is a ground-ball pitcher. When Mariano gets hit, it's more singles. When Pap gets hit, its for long-balls.

Papelbon is in his contract year. He wants to be paid like a dominant closer. He wants Mariano money. Pap makes slightly below $10mm. Tampa's Rafeal Soriano make $7.25mm; Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero, $11.25mm; The Met's Francisco Rodriguez, $12.1mm; and the seemingly ageless Mariano makes $15mm this year.

Gritty closers are hard to find but, outside of Mariano, don't tend to have long useful lives. Pap had three great seasons, and is currently in his second above average season. He isn't a dominant closer anymore. Closing the save 82% of the time doesn't cut it. Top closers are closing 90+%. Red Sox management is aware of these facts, and will unlikely pay him top dollar - because he isn't worth top dollar. Don't be surprised to see Daniel Bard in that role next year.

BTW, Pap make those saves like a dominant closer should, and the Red Sox are in the wild-card lead.

Those ski lessons sure have paid off

The kids spent parts of 3 days learning to waterski at camp. They emerged with the ability and confidence to ski the length of the bay - as seen in the following quick video. It's a little longer than I'd like (3+ minutes), but I was having problems with my editing software. The camera is also just our little flip video, so it's not the highest quality.



The skis are currently connected. The next step will be to seperate them. However, that shouldn't be a problem since they seperated them already at camp.

Camp Pictures

Kids move on to another week of camp. This week is Water Sports camp. For the most part, they learn to waterski. They happened to spend a fair amount of time yesterday on/in the water between swimming, skiing and canoeing. They deemed it, "the best day of camp yet."

Here are some pictures from earlier weeks:

Update

Old boat is sold. All-in capital cost for use last year, storage over the winter and use this year = $400.

Say Goodbye to the Old, and Welcome the New

We upgraded our boat yesterday. Given all the time we spend on the water and my insatiable desire to go wakeboarding and wake surfing, we purchased a newer Supra ski boat. Bought it on Craigslist - what a great service. I've purchased now two boats, a lift and a golf cart through Craigslist. Hopefully, I'll sell a boat and a car through it too.

The new is a 2003 Supra Launch SSV Gravity Games Edition. It's a great wakeboarding boat. It rides smooth, and creates a large wake due to the built in ballast system. Since its a V-drive inboard, the engine is in the back as opposed to the middle. Consequently, there is much more room on te deck. It also has the wakeboard tower to pull boarders and tubers, alike.



The old boat will be missed. It's a 1985 Supra, and was well worth the money I paid for it. Great entry level boat that taught us how to be boat owners. However, it has served its purpose, and is now on the market. I only listed it yesterday and have three people looking at it.

As part of this package deal, I'm selling our 1991 Porsche convertible. I've had that car longer than I've had the kids! I'll miss that too, but we NEVER use it. I'd much rather invest the capital in something we are getting a lot of use from.